Update and validate the activity-based Tahoe Travel Demand Model.

[ Full Solicitation ]

Project Description

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) is requesting proposals for the services of a qualified vender to provide travel demand modeling expertise in accordance with the scope of services provided within this RFP. Services are requested to update and validate the activity-based Tahoe Travel Demand Model.

Evaluation

Bids will be evaluated based on team qualifications, ability to meet timelines, proposed scope of work, proposed budget, references, and sample products. If oral interviews are needed, the qualified consulting firms will be invited to make a formal presentation to a selection committee (see above for more information). TRPA reserves the right to select a consultant based solely on the written proposals and not convene oral interviews. TRPA is not required to contract with a consultant, and may choose not to select any of the submitted consultants

Introduction

This RFP is part of the TRPA Transportation Division’s work to update the Tahoe Travel Demand Model in preparation for the next regional transportation plan. The objective of the project is to bring the model up-to-date with new data and methodologies that allow for better estimation of current and future transportation conditions throughout the Tahoe region. The project is funded by state and federal grants.

#TRPA Background Information: Established in 1969, by a Federally sponsored, interstate compact between California and Nevada, TRPA is authorized under California law (California Government Code sections 66800 through 66801), Nevada law (NRS 277.190 through 277.200), and Federal law (PL 96-551).

The mission of TRPA is to “lead the cooperative effort to preserve, restore, and enhance the unique, natural, and human environment of the Lake Tahoe Region.” TRPA is the leading partner for plans and actions to preserve the environment of the Tahoe region. TRPA establishes transportation and land use policy and works with local, regional, state, and Federal organizations and governments to facilitate a cooperative approach in implementing these plans and programs. The TRPA Regional Plan is designed to maintain a healthy natural environment, meet adopted environmental standards, maintain social and economic health, and allow orderly growth in the Region.

TRPA is governed by a 15-member Board. California and Nevada each have seven members comprised of elected officials and governmental appointees. In addition, a non-voting member is appointed by the President of the United States. Further information can be obtained at TRPA’s website at www.trpa.org.

TRPA is granted environmental planning and regulatory authority at Lake Tahoe pursuant to the Tahoe Regional Planning Compact (Public Law 96-551). TRPA requires all projects to be consistent with the applicable development and environmental standards found throughout the TRPA Regional Plan package.

Objectives

The objective of this project is to update and validate the Tahoe Travel Demand Model. The deliverables include updated sub-model components and a validated model with documentation of each deliverable.

Context of the Project

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) is a bistate regional planning agency and metropolitan planning organization (MPO) located on the border of California and Nevada. Created through a Bi-State Compact between California and Nevada, TRPA leads the cooperative effort to preserve, restore, and enhance the Lake Tahoe Region, while improving local communities and visitors’ interactions with its irreplaceable environment. As the Lake Tahoe Region’s federally-designated metropolitan planning organization, TRPA plays a leading role in identifying and planning solutions for its transportation challenges.

http://www.tahoeopendata.org/datasets/trpa-boundary

As part of their Pathways 2007 project TRPA updated its travel-forecasting model. The previous model, a 3-step model developed in the 1980’s, was originally developed in Tranplan and was converted to the TransCAD platform during the first phase of model work. While the model was successfully converted, it was not able to address many important policy issues because of the limitations of trip-based models. The current Lake Tahoe Resident and Visitor Model consists of an activity-based resident model and an activity-based visitor model. Because the number of resident households, employment locations, person activities, and the resident/visitor mix are potentially very different in the region during the summer versus the winter, socio-economic data has been developed for the two seasons. The current model is used to assist TRPA in analyzing a variety of planning policies and to estimate and forecast VMT in the region. The last major model run occurred for the 2017 Regional Transportation Plan.

During the winter of 2019, TRPA convened a model stakeholder working group to solicit feedback on the update to the TRPA travel demand model. A major outcome of the working group was a prioritized set of potential model updates that were developed and vetted by TRPA staff, a contractor, and the model working group stakeholders. These prioritized model updates comprise the tasks and deliverables contained within this RFP scope.

Scope

With stakeholder and contractor guidance, TRPA staff have identified a set of updates to the model that should be implemented. The scope of the project is to make specified changes to the Tahoe Travel Demand Model and validate the model after updates have been implemented.

Task 1: Model Updates – Implement specified updates to the Tahoe Travel Demand Model.

Major Milestones: Prior to producing the task deliverables, the contractor shall work with TRPA staff to understand and clarify Task 1 milestones.

Deliverable 1: Update Visitor Sub-Model w/ New Survey Data:

A unique and important component of the Tahoe model is a visitor sub- model, which incorporates visitor travel patterns throughout the Tahoe region. The contractor shall implement changes to the visitor sub- model, including updating the overnight visitor and day visitor sample records and patterns using data from the recent 2018 Summer Visitor Survey. This will help in getting a more representative sample as the new visitor population will reflect the changes in visitor composition that has occurred in recent years. The contractor shall work with TRPA staff to integrate the existing travel survey dataset into the model and provide detailed documentation of how that data was incorporated.

Deliverable 2: Collect New External Worker Data & Re-Calibrate External Worker Model:

The contractor shall update the external worker sub-model by proposing updated data sources, collecting new data, and re-calibrating the model. This update will provide revised estimates for the number of external workers coming into the region as well as which entry point they are using. Potential data sources include LODES, StreetLight, and AirSage. An updated employer-based survey may also be appropriate to understand the local jobs that are filled by external workers (to validate Big Data based assumptions) and the seasonal nature of those jobs. Once this data is incorporated, the reverse destination choice model shall be recalibrated. The contractor shall propose external worker data source(s), work with TRPA to collect the data, re-calibrate the sub- model, provide detailed documentation of calibration process and provide any collected data in csv or excel file format.

Deliverable 3: Collect New External Traffic Station Data

The contractor shall propose best data sources for model representation of the number and type of travelers (eg residents, visitors, commuters) that travel through the 7 locations (external traffic stations) where vehicles enter and exit the Tahoe basin. The composition of the 24-hour traffic volumes at the external stations informs several key model assumptions, such as percentage of thru (passenger and truck), external worker, overnight visitor, day visitor, and truck (service/delivery) traffic, resident worker to job factor, and external worker origin. Intercept surveys are the traditional method of data collection but this data could potentially be pieced together using other data sources such as Big Data, mobile app data, a license plate survey or count data. Once TRPA staff and the contractor agree upon data sources, the contractor should provide guidance on how to best collect and integrate the data into the model. The contractor shall collect the data, provide detailed documentation of the data collection methodology, integrate the data into the model and provide the collected data itself in csv or excel file formats.

Deliverable 4: Update Visitor Destination Choice Model w/ Recreation Activity Data

Update the visitor sub-model by creating a more data driven approach to calculate the ‘attractiveness’ of recreation locations throughout the Tahoe basin. Currently there is an off-model approach where the model user assigns an attractiveness score to each TAZ. The contractor should propose a new methodology for representing the relative amount of visitor and resident activity at recreation locations throughout the region. This will include updating the visitor destination choice model using new data sources and incorporating capacity constraints such as parking or cost. The contractor shall provide detailed documentation of the proposed methodology including data sources and any code developed to analyze model data.

Deliverable 5: Create external Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ) system

Currently, the Tahoe model only includes trip distances that occur within the TRPA jurisdictional boundary. The contractor shall update the model Transportation Analysis Zones to include travel distances that occur coming to and from the TRPA region but which are outside of the TRPA jurisdictional boundary. This could include creating a virtual TAZ system without an underlying roadway network with travel impedances represented in the model rather than the network or extending TAZ boundaries all the way to San Francisco Bay Area to properly address VMT resulting from inter-regional travel. The contractor shall provide detailed documentation of TAZ development methodology and integrate the newly created TAZ system into the existing travel demand model.

Task 2 Model Validation – Validate the Tahoe travel demand model.

Major Milestones: Prior to producing the task deliverables, the contractor shall work with TRPA staff to understand and clarify Task 2 milestones.

Deliverable 6: Static Model Validation

Perform static validation to analyze modeled values compared against observed conditions, which should include but is not limited to comparing the assigned volumes and congested speeds against observed counts and speed data for the modeled day across facility type, screenlines, volume group, etc. To start, the contractor shall create a static validation plan and work with TRPA staff to gather validation data. Once the contractor has conducted the validation, they shall provide detailed documentation of the validation results. Validation methodology should satisfy all state and federal guidelines

Deliverable 7: Dynamic Model Validation

Put the Tahoe Travel Demand Model through a series of tests to identify the degree of model sensitivity/insensitivity and to determine whether the model is appropriate for both regional and project-level analysis. To start, the contractor shall work with TRPA staff to create a dynamic validation plan by identifying a range of potential sensitivity tests. Next the contractor shall carry out dynamic validation tests and lastly create detailed documentation of the validation results. Validation methodology should satisfy state and federal guidelines.

Task 3: Additional Model Improvements (optional)

The deliverables listed above are part of a larger list of potential model updates that were established with guidance from the model stakeholder working group. Depending on project budget and need, there may be an opportunity to update additional elements of the model. If additional work is requested, TRPA staff shall work with the contractor to establish the scope for these deliverables.

Responsibilities

The contractor shall work with TRPA staff to produce all deliverables listed above. This will be a collaborative effort to implement updates and validate the model.

Schedule

Commencement of work July 1, 2019 Deliverable 1 October 1st, 2019 Deliverable 2 October 1st, 2019 Deliverable 3 October 1st, 2019 Deliverable 4 October 1st, 2019 Deliverable 5 October 1st, 2019 Deliverable 6 November 15, 2019 Deliverable 7 November 15, 2019 Contract End December 31, 2019

Budget

Submissions should provide detailed cost for each deliverable. Budget will be determined based on consultant proposals.

Consultant Requirements

• Demonstrated ability to work with government clients
• Knowledge of Federal and State transportation modeling guidelines
• Experience with travel demand models that incorporate visitor and commuter travel patterns Experience with activity-based travel demand models
• Experience with static and dynamic model validation
• Experience with ‘big data’ sources, collection, and analysis, such as Streetlight or Airsage Proficiency with TransCAD and programming languages such as Java, Python, & R
• Desirable: Knowledge of California and Nevada transportation modeling guidelines, including California SB 743 legislation

SECTION 3: Proposal Contents and Selection Process

MINIMUM REQUIRED PROPOSAL CONTENTS:

All proposal responses should address the following matters:

1. Definition of the Project: Indicate your understanding of the Project objectives and TRPA travel demand model. Max page limit: 1 page
2. Project approach: Describe how the Project will be managed, implemented, and evaluated to accomplish the objectives and requirements outlined in this request. Max page limit: 2 pages
3. Team Organization: Describe how the project team will be organized to facilitate effective management, implementation, and evaluation. Max page limit: 1 page
4. Qualifications and Experience: Provide a summary of company and project team qualifications related to travel demand modeling. Max page limit: 2 pages
5. Schedule and Cost: The initial term of this contract shall be for July 1-December 31, 2019, with an option to extend for one additional year. Provide an itemized cost estimate based on the Tasks described in Scope of Work section. Max page limit: 1 page
6. References: Provide a minimum of three (3) client references of similar sized and/or governmental accounts which the bidder has served in a similar capacity over the past two years and/or is currently serving. Provide a contact person, telephone number, and email address for each reference customer. References should be submitted as an attachment to this response. Max page limit: 3 pages